Coronavirus could put more than 200,000 Scots in hospital

Camley's cartoon: Coronavirus arrives in Scotland.

Speaking after the first Scottish case of the Covid-19 virus was confirmed in a patient from Tayside who had recently returned from Italy, Ms Sturgeon said ministers were working to slow the spread of the virus to give the NHS the best possible chance of coping.

Chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood stressed that around 80% of people will experience only mild illness “the equivalent of a cough or mild flu”, but that around 4% were likely to require hospital treatment.

• READ MORE: UK cases of COVID-19 virus climb

Dr Calderwood added that the “peak” of the outbreak is not expected for another two to three months if the spread of coronavirus “becomes sustained”. She said: “We’re expecting perhaps 50% or as much as 80% of the population during that epidemic.”

Ms Sturgeon explained Scotland’s response to the global epidemic is in the “contain phase” and will be escalated to the “delay phase” - which could lead to large events such as football matches and music festivals being cancelled based on the advice of scientific experts from across the UK.

According to the latest update from the World Health Organisation, published on March 1, around 80% of patients experience mild illness, 14% experience “severe disease” and 5% become critically ill.

Crucially, WHO notes that the “mortality in those with critical illness has been reported as over 50%”, stressing that oxygen therapy remains the major intervention for the severely ill in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.

It stated: “All countries should work to optimise the availability of pulse oximeters and medical oxygen systems. Mortality in those with critical illness has been reported as over 50%, thus implementation of proven critical care interventions such as lung protective ventilation should be optimised.”

Death rates were ten times higher in elderly people than the middle-aged, and people with diabetes, high blood pressure or heart or breathing problems were at least five times more likely than healthy people to die.

The estimates are based on the outcomes among 44,672 confirmed cases of the coronavirus Covid-19 strain in China, where 80,174 cases have been recorded to date.

If similar patterns were to play out in Scotland, with a population of 5.43 million and the Scottish Government’s worst case scenario of 80% infection rates, it would mean 4.3m falling ill - 217,000 critically and more than 100,000 deaths.

The worst winter flu season in recent years, in 2008/9, claimed 13,000 lives across the whole of the UK.

Ms Sturgeon said: “In terms of the delay phase, part of the purpose of that is to try to ensure those kind of numbers are not all hitting all at once, that the spread of the infection is being slowed down.

“It’s really important in situations like this to be frank and factual in the information we give but we are dealing with reasonable worst-case predictions.

“We are not sitting here right now saying all of this will come to pass but I think the public would want to know we are preparing on the basis of what we think is the reasonable worst-case outcome.”

The Scottish Government said its 50-80% projection was based on modelling from China.

However, to date within Hubei province - the epicentre of the outbreak - there have been 66,907 confirmed cases in a population of 59,170,000, equivalent to an infection rate of 0.1%.

For China as a whole, where the spread of the virus has been slowing amid rigorous quarantine measures, there have been 80,174 cases so far in a population of around 1.4 billion.

When asked for more detail on how the 50-80% figure was calculated, a Scottish Government spokeswoman said: "A ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ would be that 50-80% of the population might become infected.

"But in this case, a large proportion of the infected population are likely to show no symptoms.

"However, as more data becomes available from around the world this will allow modellers to give us increasingly accurate estimates."

Following confirmation of the first coronavirus case north of the Border, Ms Sturgeon also chaired a meeting of the Scottish Government’s Resilience Committee. She said: “The patient who tested positive for Covid-19 is clinically well and is being treated in hospital. I would like to thank the NHS for its response and all of the health professionals involved in the patient’s care and treatment. Early detection measures will continue to be vital in helping to prevent the spread of the virus – everyone can play their part by following the latest health and travel advice, and following basic hygiene precautions, such as washing hands frequently, not touching their face and covering their nose and mouth with a tissue when coughing or sneezing.” 

The latest figures for Scotland showed that 816 people have now been tested for the virus, including the single positive case.

• READ MORE: Scotland to prepare for 'significant outbreak' of Coronavirus

Testing for the virus has been stepped up in recent days, including drive-through appointments where members of the public can be checked for the virus in their cars outside the Western General Hospital in Edinburgh.

In England, four new cases were confirmed in Hertfordshire, Devon and Kent, taking the UK total to 39. Northern Ireland and Wales each have one confirmed case.

Speaking after an emergency Cobra meeting, Prime Minister urged people to wash their hands to the tune of Happy Birthday sang twice, saying that this was “the single most useful thing that we can all do to support the NHS”.

Mr Johnson said the spread of Covid-19 was likely to become “more significant” for the UK in coming days.

He said: “We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I’m afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable.”

The PM said decisions to close schools and ban mass gatherings would only be taken on scientific advice, adding: “The most important thing for people to understand is that (measures) will be guided by scientific advice.”

Legislation allowing the Government to use extra powers to help control the virus is expected to go through Parliament by the end of the month.

This could include controversial plans to asking retired doctors and nurses to return to help the NHS.

UK Health secretary Matt Hancock said mitigating the Covid-19 crisis was about making “the best use of resources in the hospital system which will come under major pressure”. Globally, a total of 89,527 cases and 3,056 deaths have now been recorded.