A RE-ELECTED Donald Trump could fail to recognise an independent Scotland as a state, a new report has warned.
The analysis from Anthony Salamone’s European Merchants, says the current president is “unpredictable” while the foreign policy of his rival, Joe Biden, would be “far more likely to base decisions on a clearly defined set of principles”.
With just two weeks until the US election, the result will almost certainly be important for Scotland.
Whoever wins will be in power between January next year until 2025, conceivably at the same time as a future referendum, and, if Scotland votes Yes, the resulting negotiations and breaking away.
In his paper Salamone says that “during the transition to statehood, the main challenge for Edinburgh would be to demonstrate that Scotland would remain a stable and reliable partner, not become a further source of instability in global affairs.”
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He adds: “The consequences of independence for transatlantic relations would be a focal point for the US, including Scotland’s future relationships with the European Union and Nato.
“The response of the US administration would be highly relevant to Scotland in multiple respects.
“To achieve effective independence, it would be foundational to Scotland for the United States to recognise the Scottish state at the point of independence.”
But, with that decision resting at executive level, it matters who gets into the White House.
Salamone adds: “Trump’s decision-making is largely unpredictable, rarely guided by discernible policy principles.
“It is impossible to envisage to any reasonable degree how he would respond to Scottish independence.
“More to the point, decisions related to Scotland made under a renewed Trump administration could not be guaranteed – such positions could be reversed at any time, without warning or reasoning.
“Managing an unknowable US-Scotland relationship would be challenging at a delicate time for the new Scottish state.”
The analyst says Biden’s foreign policy “would be informed by his substantial experience in this field, as vice president and as senator.
“He would be far more likely to base decisions on a clearly defined set of principles for America’s role in the world and its global outlook. Under the requisite circumstances, it would seem probable that a Biden administration would recognise Scotland as a state.
“Whatever his approach, the logic would undoubtedly be consistent and understandable.”
Salamone says in normal times, having a president with Scottish roots, like Trump, would “be diplomatic gold for Scotland, leading to possibilities of access, interest and support.”
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But, he adds “the official relationship between Trump and Scotland’s political leaders is confrontational and distrusting.”
He says any future special relationship between the US and an independent Scotland “must be capable of transcending differences between governments.”
Biden was recently asked for his thoughts on Scottish independence at a campaign stop.
He said: “I learned from Scottish friends that the last thing to do is to suggest to a Scot what he should do.
“So I’m going to stay out of that. We have a great alliance now.”
In a 2017 interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said another referendum on Scottish independence “would be terrible”, adding: “They just went through hell.”
The president then added: “One little thing, what would they do with the British Open if they ever got out?
“They’d no longer have the British Open. Scotland. Keep it in Scotland.”
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