TONIGHT'S battle at the bottom of the Premiership looks titanic in stature for the two clubs involved. Jim Goodwin's St Mirren host Hearts in a match that neither side can afford to lose.

A win for the hosts would open up a six-point gap between themselves and Daniel Stendel's side at the foot of the table, while a win for Hearts would lift them out of the relegation zone for a day at least before Accies take on Motherwell in the Lanarkshire derby.

Unlucky Saints?

While the Buddies find themselves fighting off relegation for a second successive season, the underlying data behind their performances gives fans of the Paisley outfit cause for cautious optimism. Goodwin's team are the lowest scorers in the league this campaign with just 21 to their name, but they can perhaps consider themselves a little unfortunate in this regard. A look a St Mirren's expected goals (xG) shows that they are creating decent opportunities; they are simply not taking them.

Their xG of 28.8 is higher than the likes of Aberdeen (26.5) and Kilmarnock (26.3) and, given time, we should expect St Mirren's goals scored to close in on their xG. It's a similar story at the other end of the park, too: the Paisley side have one of the best defences in the league on paper (only Celtic, Rangers, Aberdeen and Motherwell have conceded fewer goals) and again, the underlying data is promising for St Mirren. Their xG against of 31.7 is only bettered by the Old Firm and implies that they have been unlucky to concede the number of goals that they have.

It might not look like it at first glance but Goodwin's side are well-drilled, organised and effective: don't be surprised if they start to climb the league table sooner rather than later.

Style over substance

You won't find too many Hearts fans pining for Craig Levein after the former Scotland manager was dismissed last October. After much deliberation, Daniel Stendel was appointed as his successor in Gorgie but it is safe to say that the jury remains out on the German.

There is no question that, aesthetically at least, Hearts are a better side under Stendel than they were under Levein. The latter earned a reputation for dour, agricultural football at Tynecastle which, alongside poor results, ultimately cost him his job. Fans can abide dull matches if there is a clear benefit to the club's points tally but, just as Derek McInnes has found out at Pittodrie in recent weeks, little goodwill from the stands remains when the points dry up.

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Stendel's energetic, high-pressing football certainly adds to the entertainment value on offer in the capital. The only problem is that there is still plenty of work to be done to drill the Hearts players into an effective unit in such a system. This, of course, requires time: a resource that is in very short supply as the club look to stave off relegation.

Defensive dilemma

Stendel's appointment was a somewhat ambitious one, given the club's plight this season, but there is a real feeling amongst Hearts supporters that Stendel's system can go on to reap rewards. It's certainly an ambitious style of play - and one that is admirable - but it should be pointed out that it isn't working. At least not yet.

Under Levein (0.73), Hearts were picking up slightly more points-per-game on average than they currently are under Stendel (0.64). They were conceding fewer goals per match under the former Dundee United boss (this has increased from 1.36 to 2) but were scoring slightly fewer on average (0.9 under Levein, compared to 1 under Stendel). The morale-boosting win over Rangers last month has gone some way to papering over the cracks but there are still serious issues at the back that Stendel must resolve.

The back-line at Hearts rarely, if ever, resembles one. The defenders at Tynecastle are still clearly getting to grips with the new manager's tactical philosophy and this is most apparent when the defence's shape is examined.

Playing in a straight, flat line across the back is a fundamental aspect of the sport yet Hearts' defenders rarely form one. Full-backs are either too far forward or lagging behind the centre-backs, leaving gaping holes for the opposition to exploit. If this vulnerability isn't addressed - and quickly - then this haphazard defensive policy could be what ultimately sends Hearts into the Championship for the second time in six seasons.