AFTER 22 years, it all comes down to this. Scotland are 90 minutes away from qualifying for a major tournament for the first time since the 1998 World Cup, with Serbia the only remaining obstacle placed in our nation’s path.
Victory in Belgrade tomorrow evening will secure our place in next summer’s delayed European Championships but the task facing Steve Clarke and his players is an unenviable one. The Serbian squad is littered with players who ply their trade at the summit of European football but while our opponents are not lacking in star power, Scotland have a real chance of bringing our decades-long hoodoo to a close.
Here, Herald and Times Sport runs the rule over three of the Serbs’ key players as we dig into the data to see how they can be stopped.
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
The Lazio midfielder was a significant doubt going into this game after health authorities in Italy ruled that players from certain Serie A clubs – including Lazio – would not be granted permission to fly out for international duty but Milinkovic-Savic made it in time to link up with the rest of the squad.
The 25-year-old is the star turn in the Serbia midfield and Clarke will do his chances of success the world of good if he can keep Milinkovic-Savic quiet. He tends to play in more advanced role for his country than at club level – more of a No. 10 than a typical central midfielder – and has a history of producing the goods in crunch fixtures.
Milinkovic-Savic scored both of Serbia’s goals in their 2-1 win over Norway in the Euro 2020 play-off semi-final to tee up tonight’s meeting with Scotland, and grabbed a goal and an assist in his side’s 2-2 draw with Turkey in their last outing. If he can be shackled, then Serbia’s chances of victory will take a significant hit.
Dusan Tadic
Fans of the Premier League may remember the playmaker from his four-year stint at Southampton but it is at Ajax, Tadic’s current employer, that the midfielder has played his best football. He played a vital role in the Dutch side’s remarkable run to the semi-finals of the Champions League in 2019 and now at the age of 31, is approaching the peak of his powers.
Usually deployed just behind the striker, Tadic thrives on drifting into space between the opposition midfield and defence and is a superb technical footballer. This ability – combined with his near-omnipotent vision on the park – makes the midfield maestro a very dangerous opponent, and one that can produce a moment of magic out of nothing.
Tadic is once again in stellar form at club level, providing eight goals and three assists in 11 first-team appearances this term – including two goals and an assist in three Champions League outings – and is among the most creative players in the Eredivisie.
Expected assists (xA) measure the quality of chances that a player creates based on the likelihood of them being converted and Tadic has the fifth-highest tally of any player in the Dutch top flight so far this season, while the attacking midfielder also boasts an expected goals (xG) of 4.34 – again, one of the greatest tallies in the division.
Tadic has also recorded more touches in the opposition box than any other player in the league, has hit more key passes – passes that lead directly to a shot – than anyone else and is among the league leaders for smart passes, a metric that tracks passes that remove opposition players from defensive phases of play. In short: he’s the man that makes them tick.
Aleksandar Mitrovic
Another player that followers of English football will be familiar with. The Fulham striker is a regular fixture up top for Serbia and is their focal point in attack with 36 goals in 59 senior appearances at international level.
The 26-year-old was the English Championship’s joint-top scorer last season, tied with Brentford’s Ollie Watkins on 26 goals, and finished the campaign with an xG of 25.5, implying that this return was generally representative of his overall performance in front of goal.
With 13 goals in his last 11 appearances for his country, Mitrovic has been in a rich vein of form stretching back to October 2019 and is the most potent attacking weapon in Serbia’s arsenal. Mitrovic isn’t an especially mobile striker – he’s more of a traditional centre-forward – but he averages a relatively high number of touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes and has proven to be deadly when opportunities arise. He will undoubtedly be a big presence in attack for Serbia but he has the potential to be isolated if he suffers from a lack of service.
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