Brexit is already changing Scottish football - here's how

With transfer deadline day approaching on Monday, English Championship clubs took a Gatling-gun approach to recruitment from our top-flight clubs. By the time the window is bolted shut, two of the SPFL Premiership's most prolific strikers – Aberdeen's Sam Cosgrove and Hibernian's Kevin Nisbet – could find themselves pairing up at Birmingham City. 

A further deal is in the pipeline for another Hibs' youngster. Ryan Porteous is the subject of interest from Millwall although it is unlikely that the Easter Road side would be prepared to accept the £1m bid that is reportedly on the table for the Scotland defender. Indeed, the £2m they have been offered for Nisbet – the same fee that Aberdeen have accepted for Cosgrove – is unlikely to be entertained either despite Hibs standing to make a healthy profit on the £250,000 they bought him from Dunfermline for in the summer. Meanwhile, the young Hibs left-back Josh Doig is said to be the subject of interest from Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City and his namesake, Josh Reid, another 18-year-old left back, has just left Ross County for Coventry City.

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Welcome to the post-Brexit future. Down south, the price of English players is expected to skyrocket as previously cheap European markets are closed off due to the redrawing of the FA's Governing Body Endorsement 15-point scoring system that determines eligibility for a work permit on a sliding scale that ranges from ability to speak the language to success on the domestic, European and international stage. In other words, no more obscure signings from Scandinavia or French League 2. The scope of the restrictions does not extend to Scotland and, hence, we can expect to see a steady stream of players crossing the border, some in search of untold riches and others assured of a healthy pay rise.

“Very much so,” says one registered intermediary from a leading sports management company. “That trend will only intensify. In England, there has already been a shift. When you mention foreign players now, unless they are an internationalist or they are an obvious exemption because they are from a top club or top country then there can be a lot of hassle and red tape aligned to ascertaining whether someone is going to get a GBE or not. You don't have any of that hassle with the ones from the British Isles.”

Where once establishing a reputation in Scotland was to be viewed with suspicion now it has assumed a kind of Kitemark status. As such, Premier League clubs are appointing full-time scouting teams here, young Scottish players at pro-youth level are attracting covetous glances – witness the departures of Celtic's Josh Adam and Kilmarnock's Liam Smith to Manchester City, Stuart McKinstry to Leeds United and Mark Leonard at Brighton – while established SPFL Premiership names are garnering considerable transfer fees – especially from Skybet Championship clubs – and walking straight into starting line-ups.

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“You're starting to see the benefit of the likes of the SFA performance schools,” adds the representative. “Whether it's the main driver, who knows? But even just in terms of the likes of Billy Gilmour doing well has probably made other clubs more proactive. When Billy was aged 16 and playing [for Scotland] in the Victory Shield there was a lot of attention about him and loads of clubs were coming up to watch him but they were also watching the other boys on the field. There has been a good number since who have got their moves.”

The hoary old chestnut when it comes to deals between English clubs and those in Scotland concerns value and lack thereof. The Virgil van Dijk transfer – in which Southampton enjoyed a 550% increase in value when they sold the Dutch central defender to Liverpool having bought him from Celtic for circa £13m – is the most obvious example of a player appreciating disproportionately simply by dint of the fact that he had played for two seasons in the Premier League.

 Anyone who saw Van Dijk regularly here knew that he was ready for one of England's top clubs but none of them were prepared to take that chance. The respective valuations of Andy Robertson to Liverpool – bought originally by Hull City from Dundee United for relative shrapnel given that casual estimates now place him in the £70m bracket – and Kieran Tierney – purchased for circa £25m after sizeable add-ons but now worth at least double that after a season and a half – only serve to demonstrate that English clubs have long known they are operating in a buyer's market when they come north looking for talent.

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But post-Brexit, Scottish football looks more like a seller's market and as such English clubs have been jostling for position for some time.

“I can already see that there was work done during the transition period [prior to Brexit] with the immigration rules becoming more stringent,” says the source. “The number of clubs that are more proactively hiring members of staff in Scotland, even in Northern Ireland, the focus has been shifted in recruitment meetings for the last year, 18 months. These deals for Nisbet, Cosgrove, Porteous and Reid don't just come out of the woodwork. There will have been internal conversations, groundwork about strategies and [about how] the focus has got to be back on knowing that you can get deals done. There's no point wasting too much time, money and effort on lawyers, going through applications to the Home Office and having everything aligned with the GBE when you can get more clarity from taking ones in the core market.”

The good news in all of this is that increased demand for Scottish players is certain to drive prices up. For the young, up-and-coming in your club's youth ranks, it's also going to mean rapid elevation to the first team just as Reid experienced at Ross County.

“One of the knock on effects in Scotland is you will see more boys from up here going down there. Ross County playing Josh Reid and moving him on is part of their business model. These players are going to have a premium attached to them.”`